Series

Can It Be Built

Examining a public technical claim against the physics and the factory.

Every verdict this series has published, including the ones that turned out wrong.
ClaimVerdictConfidenceTellsStatus

Terabase Energy · 2026-03-19

Over the next 12 months, Terabase is building factory capacity at its Northern California facility capable of installing up to 10 GW per year.
Buildable, at a revised cost or datemoderate
  1. Commercial building permits or FERC interconnection queue filings naming a V2 Terafab deployment at a specific US project site with an EPC contractor of record Q4 2026
  2. First Solar quarterly earnings disclosures showing Series 7 shipment volumes sufficient to support the project pipeline implied by multi-line V2 deployment Q3-Q4 2026
  3. Terabase cumulative installed capacity reaching 500 MW or more by December 2026, testable against trade press tracking by PV Tech and pv magazine USA without company cooperation Q1 2027
  4. FERC interconnection queue data in CAISO, MISO, and ERCOT showing a pipeline of Terafab-enabled projects with commercial operation dates clustering in the 2026 to 2028 window at a scale consistent with 10 GW annual absorption Q2 2027
  5. At least three deployable Terafab V2 lines by December 31, 2026, confirmed by company disclosure or trade press. Q4 2026
  6. Ten deployable Terafab V2 lines by June 30, 2027, the company's own roadmap date. Q2 2027
OpenSep 27, 2026

Ayar Labs · 2026-03-03

The company will use the funds to scale high-volume production and test capacity to accelerate the deployment of its CPO solution.
Buildable, at a revised cost or datemoderate
  1. DVT completion confirmed by a customer-facing data sheet update or a foundry technology disclosure from GlobalFoundries or TSMC by mid-2027
  2. A hyperscaler qualification win surfacing in an earnings call transcript or import records showing optical chiplet volumes entering a data center build by end-2027
  3. Adoption or rejection of Lightmatter's OCP standardization initiative by a named hyperscaler, visible in OCP working group published minutes by end-2026
  4. Sivers Photonics financial filings disclosing DFB laser order volumes consistent with a 2027 production ramp from Ayar Labs by mid-2027
OpenSep 20, 2026

Exowatt · 2024-09-10

The Exowatt P3 generates electricity at an industry-leading cost of just under 4 cents per kWh
Undeterminedlow
  1. Permitting and environmental review filings for the first ExoRise pilot project, searchable through county planning databases and state environmental agency portals in New Mexico, West Texas, Arizona, or Nevada Q3 2026
  2. U.S. Customs and Border Protection import records for Stirling engine components or assemblies, accessible via ImportYeti or Panjiva, showing volume shipments to Exowatt or its named contract manufacturers Q4 2026
  3. NREL 2026 Annual Technology Baseline update, which explicitly tracks emerging modular solar-thermal technologies and would require disclosed performance and cost data for inclusion Q2 2027
  4. A power purchase agreement or commercial energy services contract filed with a state public utilities commission or disclosed in a counterparty's SEC filing, embedding an independently validated price per kWh Q2 2027
OpenSep 5, 2026

Figure AI · June 25, 2026

Our 11-month deployment of Figure 02 proved that humanoids are no longer lab experiments - they can be a valuable asset in establishing a flexible, reliable manufacturing workforce.
Undeterminedlow
  1. ISO/WD 25785-1 ballot status advancing from working draft to committee draft or draft international standard, surfacing through ISO's public standards tracking portal Q2 2027
  2. EU Machinery Regulation CE declaration of conformity for Figure 03 appearing in EU market surveillance databases, triggered if BMW proceeds with European plant deployments Q1 2027
  3. OSHA enforcement records for BMW Plant Spartanburg accessible via OSHA's public inspection database, showing whether Figure AI's energy control procedures were reviewed or cited Q4 2026
  4. Gruendel v. Figure AI (No. 5:25-cv-10094, N.D. Cal.) docket activity on PACER, with discovery potentially compelling disclosure of internal safety procedures, incident logs, and risk assessment records Q2 2027
  5. The safety-function partition for Helix 02: any public description of Figure 03's safety architecture -- CE technical documentation, a notified body engagement, a published safety white paper, or discovery in Gruendel v. Figure AI -- establishing whether balance is owned by a deterministic layer or a learned one. If the learned layer owns it, Annex I Part A applies and the conformity route changes. 2027-01-20
OpenAug 27, 2026
  1. StartupsTerabase EnergySEP 27, 202617 min

    Terabase's 10 GW Promise: What a 20 MW-per-Week Outdoor Line Actually Has to Sustain

    Over the next 12 months, Terabase is building factory capacity at its Northern California facility capable of installing up to 10 GW per year.

  2. StartupsAyar LabsSEP 20, 202615 min

    The Silicon Is Real. The Factory Is the Question.

    The company will use the funds to scale high-volume production and test capacity to accelerate the deployment of its CPO solution.

  3. StartupsExowattSEP 5, 202614 min

    Four Cents a Kilowatt-Hour: Examining the Claim at the Heart of Exowatt's P3

    The Exowatt P3 generates electricity at an industry-leading cost of just under 4 cents per kWh

  4. StartupsFigure AIAUG 27, 202615 min

    Can a Humanoid Working Beside People Be Made Safe? Figure AI Meets Its Binding Constraint

    Our 11-month deployment of Figure 02 proved that humanoids are no longer lab experiments - they can be a valuable asset in establishing a flexible, reliable manufacturing workforce.